'Only Four Airlines Will Survive'

[JS50557]

A recession could kill off all but four of Europe's airlines, according to Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary.

Cost of flights to fall over next six months

The budget airline boss, who earlier announced a 47% drop in first-half profits, said as many as six European airlines could go bankrupt between now and Christmas.

Mr O'Leary added that only British Airways, German carrier Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair would survive in the long run.

He said that Europe "needed" an economic downturn to get rid of loss-making airlines and make aircraft purchasing cheaper.

He also held out the hope of a new transatlantic low-cost operation within two to three years with economy fares of just £10 - but stressed that this would not be operated by Ryanair.


A recession gets rid of crappy, loss-making airlines and it means we can buy aircraft more cheaply.

Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary

Mr O'Leary was speaking in London as Ryanair reported profits of £170m for the six months to September 30.

The Irish carrier said it expected to make losses over the next six months but said that average fares would dip by between 15% and 20%.

Mr O'Leary said today that Ryanair had completed a "remarkable performance" over the last few months and that passenger numbers were up 18% in October 2008 compared with October 2007.

He said: "We need a recession. We have had 10 years of growth.

"We think interest rates should stay high and politicians should let the economy right itself normally."


Due to human error we were unfortunately unable to produce the piece of paper that the research was based on.

Which budget airline's claims don't add up?

He said he thought the recession would be "deep and dark" and could last for 18 months.

Asked about a low-cost transatlantic operation, Mr O'Leary said that it could come about if Ryanair was able to buy around 50-60 long-haul aircraft.

He went on: "We would not have any links with the company that would run this apart from the fact that we would envisage flights being made across the Atlantic from some of our European bases.

"We are not going to be a transatlantic airline ourselves. We never will."

Although Ryanair has pledged to cut fares, Francesca Ecsery of Cheapflights.com told Sky News that most airlines were unlikely to pass on fuel savings.

At the same time, Ms Ecsery thought that new opportunities would arise from the downturn.

She said: "They need to replace their coffers. Airlines will cut back on the more obscure destinations.

"But they will also be looking for gaps in the market. I think new players will emerge in premium economy and business travel.”

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[Aircolours]

Mr O'Leary added that only British Airways, German carrier Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair would survive in the long run.

Mr. O'Leary has been saying that for the last 10 years..... And ofcourse that is a myth as there will always be new airlines, startups and others. But he he said "for the long run" so he still will be telling this for the next 20 years or so...

Brgds, Peter