piet61 wrote:I suggest that the A330 was using the NAT-D or NAT-E track for crossing.
NAT = North Atlantic Tracking.
The NAT system is, as you mention, for the North Atlantic.
For the South Atlantic there is to my knowledge, no track system between South America and southern Africa, and for flight to western Africa and Europe there are "normal" airways. The ones used most of the time are UN741, UN866, UN873 (which AF447 was reportedly on), UB623, and UN857.
piet61 wrote:Any plane is obliged to give position reports, altitude, speed, windspeed and outside temperature on certain times during the crossing.
So, during the fact that this bird was crossing the Atlantic when the incident occurs, the HF operators must have known the latest position.
I assume you mean last position, as the latest position would indicate that they have near continuous contact via HF, which is not the case. Aircraft outside radar coverage usually report only at fixed waypoints, or as requested by ATC.
The last confirmed position report for AF447 was waypoint INTOL, at the boundary between the Recife and Atlantico FIRs. This would also be roughly where the last radar contact was. The aircraft was to report to Atlantico at waypoint TASIL (FIR boundary with Dakar Oceanic), before contacting Dakar. The distance between INTOL and TASIL is approximately 360nm.
Without the ACARS messages sent from the aircraft, there would have been no way of knowing when/where the accident took place between INTOL and TASIL, which would have resulted in a enormous search area.
The
theory I have, is that the aircraft suffered an upset due to severe turbulence, ended in an unusual attitude, and with the loss of the ADIRU and standby instruments, the crew had no reference to a horizon, overstressed the aircraft during the recovery, which resulted in its breakup.
It will take some time for the FDR and CVR to be located and recovered (if at all), so the only thing we know with any certainty at this point, is that the investigation will be long and difficult.
Regards,
Yorden