News & thoughts on Putin's invasion of Ukraine

[michel N]

Those 20.000+ Dead Russian soldiers are only a part of their losses. In conflicts it’s said that the number of wounded are likely double or even triple the number of fatalities. Their healthcare system could be over stretched. With these expected or calculated numbers, that would mean 20.000 lost, 40.000-60.000 soldiers temporary or completely out of action due to injuries. Even Russia can’t sustain these numbers.
And as others have already said, Putin most likely won’t accept defeat, so what are his options…

[Rabbit]

According to British intel 2/3 of Russian ground combat units were deployed to Ukraine. At this moment a quarter of deployed units ineffective because they have been eliminated by the Ukrainian defense..

I’m not a math genius, but that's about 15% of the total manpower. The Russian elite units suffered the most losses.

Those are bizarre numbers.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 0p27sLOsdA

[Rabbit]

BTW: Looks like something is going to take place in Moldova in the near future. Not good.

[ehusmann]

What is good, is that rumours of a coup against Putin are starting to manifest itself. Not sure how believable it is, much less how likely it is it will succeed. However, it would probably be the best end to the war.
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high- ... raine-war/

[ehusmann]

Summary of the offensive actions over the past two weeks. In short, the Russians have basically been able to gain some ground in only one area anear Izyum where the Ukrainians most likely have withdrawn and might continue to do so as they can fall back to the other side of the Donetsk river. Otherwise, the Russians hve been able to achieve just about nothing. As predicted...
The Ukrainians have made some gains around Kharkiv and also near Kherson. Nothing major yet, but they might be able to go into offensive mode in the coming weeks.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1522202434692870144

By the way some videos of Ukrainian combat action near Kharkiv seemed to show the Russians didn't exactly show much resistance when the Ukrainians attacked. Which would be what you expect if all the stories of low (non-existent) morale and bad leadership are true. This will be something to watch when the Ukrainians really are able to turn on the offensive shortly. Will the Russians actually resist much...

[ehusmann]

The rout of the Russians from Kharkiv is now almost complete. And crazy footage is being published. In the vicinity of the city the Russians made several tries to cross a river to be able to retreat. And as the Russians normally do, the did here as well. If something doesn't work, you just do it again. Why bother to try something different.
https://twitter.com/lodzman/status/1524 ... AF5FSMoYkQ

They tried at least twice (some say three times) to cross at the same place and got hammered both times. I am not going to check the number of lost vehicles, but it is massive. One river crossing, attempted twice, in 48 hours, lost a BTG's worth of men and material...

Supposedly first hand account of a Ukrainian engineer who directed the attack on the above shown bridging attempt. Pretty incredible if true. He says estimates of Russian losses are 30-50 vehicles and up to 1500 dead... Someone counted 58 vehicles on the pictures, so that might even be an undercount.
https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849

[patrick dirksen]

He is a bit full of himself, but if it is true, he did a good job in helping destroy a significant part of the Russian troops in that area. Well done then!

[ehusmann]

If everything is true, he has every right to be full of himself. But of course you never know what is real and what is not. Except for pictures... and the pictures from this site show massive amounts of destruction. On the 9th apparantly they made two attempts and the after action pictures have shown 78 (!!) destroyed vehicles. But yesterday they made another attempt very nearby, got hammered again and on pictures at least 13 more destroyed vehicles could be counted. So that's almost a 100 destroyed at one spot. Incredible...

[Stratofreighter]

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... 696619001/

Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, speaks exclusively with USA TODAY during an interview about the current status of the Russian invasion in Ukraine on Wednesday in Kyiv, Ukraine. Show less
JESSICA KOSCIELNIAK, JESSICA KOSCIELNIAK-USA TODAY

Budanov said that based on "human intelligence" information that Ukraine's operatives have collected from inside the Kremlin,
it appears Russian President Vladimir Putin is suffering from several "grave" illnesses
and "doesn't have a long life ahead of him."
Budanov said his office believes
Putin will die from these illnesses within two years.

He did not provide any specific evidence for these claims.
Putin's health has long been a source of rampant speculation, with unverified reports
alleging he is perhaps suffering from a form of blood cancer or Parkinson's disease.
Many Russia experts have dismissed these claims about Putin's poor health as wishful thinking.
The Kremlin does not respond to questions about the president's personal health.

Maj. Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov made the rare disclosures, some of them on extremely sensitive topics,
in a wide-ranging interview Wednesday
at the Defence Intelligence unit of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine's well-fortified Kyiv headquarters.

Budanov said that Ukraine's spies are embedded in Russia's presidential administration,
in its parliament and in several branches of Moscow's intelligence services.

He also predicted in the interview that if Ukraine's military continues to receive substantial military aid from its allies,
then by mid-August 2022
it will start scoring decisive "wins" in its four-month-old war with Russia that "will be obvious for the world community."

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... 696619001/

...and the Daily Fail....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... chief.html

[Stratofreighter]

https://www.pilootenvliegtuig.nl/2022/0 ... nschaffen/

Nederland mag meer Patriot raketten aankopen
22 juli 2022

S
WASHINGTON – Het Amerikaanse ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken heeft donderdag (20 juli) een positief besluit genomen voor de verkoop aan de de Nederlandse regering van PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) ballistische raketten.

De Nederlandse regering verzocht daarbij om de aankoop zesennegentig (96) PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) ballistische raketten.

Inbegrepen in het aankoopverzoek zijn onder meer gereedschappen en testapparatuur, testprogramma’s, ondersteunende apparatuur met bijbehorende publicaties en technische documentatie, opleiding apparatuur en reserve- en reparatieonderdelen.

De geschatte totale kosten bedragen U$ 1.219 miljard.

https://www.pilootenvliegtuig.nl/2022/0 ... nschaffen/

https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major- ... ical-gem-t

THE NETHERLANDS – PATRIOT MIM-104E GUIDANCE ENHANCED MISSILE-TACTICAL (GEM-T) BALLISTIC MISSILES

Press Release - Netherlands 22-47 CN.pdf
Media/Public Contact
pm-cpa@state.gov

Transmittal No
22-47

WASHINGTON, July 21, 2022 - The State Department has made a determination
approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of the Netherlands
of PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) Ballistic Missiles
and related equipment for an estimated cost of $1.219 billion.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

The Government of the Netherlands has requested to buy
ninety-six (96) PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) ballistic missiles.
Also included are tools and test equipment;
range and test programs;
support equipment to include associated publications and technical documentation;
training equipment;
spare and repair parts;
new equipment training;
transportation;
Quality Assurance Team support;
U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance, engineering, and logistics support services;
Systems Integration and Checkout (SICO);
field office support;
International Engineering Services Program Field Surveillance Program;
and other related elements of logistics and program support.
The estimated total cost is $1.219 billion.

This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States
by helping to improve the security of a NATO ally
that is an important force for political stability and economic progress in Europe.

The proposed sale will improve the Netherlands’ capability to meet current and future threats.
The proposed sale will increase the defensive capabilities of the Netherlands’ military
and supports its goal of improving national and territorial defense as well as interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces.
The Netherlands will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment into its armed forces.

The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.

The prime contractor will be Raytheon Corporation, Tewksbury, MA.
The purchaser normally requests offsets.

At this time, offset agreements are undetermined and will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and contractors.

Implementation of this proposed sale
will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to the Netherlands.

There is no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a result of this proposed sale.

This notice of a potential sale is required by law.
The description and dollar value is for the highest estimated quantity and dollar value based on initial requirements.

Actual dollar value will be lower
depending on final requirements, budget authority, and signed sales agreement(s), if and when concluded.

https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major- ... ical-gem-t

[Stratofreighter]

...oops...
https://nypost.com/2022/08/15/ukraine-h ... er-report/
/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62547403

[ehusmann]

For those who are not following the Ukrainian war through twitter... maybe time to start doing it. Before it is too late. Here in Portugal the news doesn't say anything and also Dutch news sites seem not very interested. However, the Ukrainians are going absolutely crazy and mopping up the Russians like they aren't even there! Over the past three days they have been making incredible progress across Kharkiv region, going all the way to Kupyansk, down to Izium and also breaking out into Lyman from the south. They are absolutely devastating the Russian defences and it really looks like the Russians are completely collapsing in that sector. Like... completely... Here's just one thread about it, but you can find many:
https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 4228748289

And here is a animated map showing the progress of just three days (!!!). And, I might add, of today and already old, as the Ukrainians have gone further already. In just three days they have liberated as big an area as the Russians have taken since starting their Donbas offensive back in what, May?
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... 1648578561

And if this sounds like 'propaganda' or overexcited arm chair followers, it is not. In the past three days the progress could be followed through pictures taken of Ukrainian troops in front of all the different city signs. Here is one of the troops on the south side of Kupyansk:
https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568181714639364098

Can this still be reversed by the Russians? Yes. If they have enough reserves, enough modern weapons, good leaders and good morale... In reality, this is most likely the turning point in the war. From now on only backwards for the Russians. No doubt a lot will still happen, but like I said in March already, the Russians have long lost this war. They just cannot accept it. Still not...

Edit:
Last info, Ukraine is closing the Izium pocket for the Russians. Only one road out, which is under Ukrainian fire control. No idea how many Russians are trapped there (they probably don't know either), but 10.000 doesn't sound like a stretch... Add that to the estimated 20.000 trapped in the Kherson pocket.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status ... 84/photo/1

[ehusmann]

This article reports that Putin has been told to 'F*ck off' by one of his generals... No idea how true it is...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... ack-update

Also in the article, "Russian soldiers" believe the war might be over in two weeks. Now that would be great news (although I wonder if that would include the liberation of Crimea).

[ehusmann]

Great analogy for the state of Russia. You are looking at it, you know what is going to happen, you think he will be smart enough... but no. He isn't.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 6013608960

[Fishbed_9307]

Russian tactical nuclear air bases is the most of Su-24, Su-34 and Tu-22M3 bases and they are

Olenogorsk
Soltsy
Kaliningrad area?
Shaykovka
Voronezh
Buturlinovka
Mozorovka
Shagol?
Angarsk
Komsomoslsk Khansk

https://thebulletin.org/premium/2020-03 ... rces-2020/
According this source have Russia around 300 tactical nuces on this bases.
But Kristenson also shows that many of the nuclear bases are in a vey bad shape.
And a question is if not the Su-30SM also are nuclear bases.

And the Su-24, Su-34, and Tu-22M3 have not many conventional miaailwa left.

Numbers don't really matter here, only a fraction of the 300 mentioned above are enough to spiral this mess totally out of control.